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Paul Jones' daily Cheltenham Festival countdown stat
Given that we have to go back 20 years to find the last RSA Chase winner to have had more than one season over hurdles*, is Time For Rupert really a play at a top price of 7-2? The last such winner was Rolling Ball (1991), who was no great shakes over timber. The last pattern-class hurdler to win the RSA Chase that had raced over timber for more than one season was A Kinsman back in 1984.
*If overlooking Lord Noelie's one back-end run before embarking on a
full season of novice hurdling
Paul Jones is author of the The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide,
published by Weatherbys
Today's TV races
Taranis (Cheltenham 2.35) can emphasise Paul Nicholls's strength in depth and take the Victorchandler.com Chase on a top-class card at Cheltenham today. The champion trainer seems to have endless ammunition for such contests, but despite punters being only too aware of the stable's strength, Nicholls is still recording a comfortable level-stakes profit in all spheres this season and at no track has he saddled more winners than this one.
Taranis showcased his trainer's abilities when returning from an injury-enforced absence of more than two years to win the Argento Chase here in January, and the horse also ran well for a long way in the Hennessy Gold Cup on his only start since, before fading out of contention over the final couple of fences. To drop him 7lb in the weights for that one run looks a generous bit of treatment from the handicapper and in this weaker event he can return to winning form. Odds of around 7-1 look simply too generous for a horse with a 50% career wins-to-runs record.
Cheltenham 1.30 Having gone well after a break in the past, The Sliotar's recent absence from the track need not be an issue as he makes his debut for Philip Hobbs. Decent ground is in his favour and finishing second to Burton Port on his most recent start was certainly no disgrace. Qhilimar, who will be eating up the ground in the closing stages, could pose the biggest threat.
Cheltenham 2.00 Ranjobaie could yet be anything, while Master Of The Hall is held in high regard and Reve De Sivola offers very high-class hurdling form. But Time For Rupert is the best staying novice chaser seen so far this season and Mr Thriller would have given him a real fight if he had stayed on his feet two out last time out. He had jumped well to that point and is definitely worth another chance.
Exeter 2.15 Salden Licht was in fine form on the Flat when last seen and he has a touch of class that could see him defy top-weight in this open-looking contest.
Exeter 2.50 Favourably treated over hurdles compared to his chase mark. Max Bygraves made good late gains in a better event at this track on his latest start. His stable are flying and the stiff finish here should suit as he stays further.
Cheltenham 3.10 A successful spin in a Southwell bumper may have rekindled some of Den Of Iniquity's enthusiasm, in which case he would rate as a player, while the betting market will help to reveal the strength of David Pipe's quintet. But Nicholls may be the man again with King's Legacy, who caught the eye staying on into third behind two well-treated rivals on his reappearance.
Horse sense
Henry Daly has made his quietest start to the season for many years, but stable star Safran de Cotte (12.20) may be ready to bring the trainer out of the darkness at Cheltenham today. An exciting young horse, unbeaten in two bumpers last season, he made a fine start to his hurdling career when making all to score at Bangor in November, beating a useful rival in Scoter Fontaine.
Daly has been itching to step Safran de Cotte up in distance in the understandable hope that there might be even more improvement to come. Easter Meteor is held in some regard by Emma Lavelle and could pose the greatest threat, having shaped with considerable promise on his only start this season.
Master of the Hall (2.00) does not quite have the form in the book to match some of his rivals, but Nicky Henderson is as keen on his prospects as he was in the Feltham Chase at Kempton's ill-fated Boxing Day card. The stable are also enthusiastic about the chances of Oscar Whisky (12.55).
Keys (3.45) has had the form of his bumper victories boosted a couple of times in recent weeks and he gets the vote in his bid to maintain his unbeaten record, although there are positive words for plenty of his rivals, among them Willie Musson's Broughtons Star and the Hughie Morrison-trained Cousin Khee, both from stables better known for their Flat performers and neither lacking in speed themselves.
Kim Bailey's team remain in excellent form, as evidenced by a double at Uttoxeter yesterday, and the trainer has high hopes for Max Bygraves (2.50) at Exeter this afternoon. Also worth picking out is Tom George's Morgan's Bay (4.00) in the closing bumper, a good second on his only start for Henry Daly, but whose homework has impressed his new trainer.
Will Hayler's bet of the day
Cheltenham 12.55 Oscar Whisky An ante-post stable gamble went astray when Ascot's Ladbroke Hurdle was snowed off before Christmas, leaving the cat well and truly out of the bag about the high-quality work Oscar Whisky has been producing at home. He faces strong rivals today, but this talented performer should be suited by the move up to two and a half miles and his Cheltenham Festival form is working out well.
Seen and heard
One of the newest recruits to the training ranks is ready to have his first runners next week. Ed de Giles, who is based a stone's throw from Venetia�Williams having moved into a 35-box yard in Ledbury in Herefordshire, has two entries at Lingfield on Monday having already enjoyed notable success as an owner last season. De Giles was a part-owner of Markab, winner of the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup in September, and it had originally been mooted that he would train the horse this season, although the gelding is now believed to have remained with his original trainer, Henry Candy, after all.
Henry Cecil's renaissance proved to�be�an undoubted highlight of 2010,�with the trainer enjoying victories at the very highest level thanks to the likes of Frankel, Twice Over and Midday. But success often breeds success in racing and, having told an interviewer last year that he would not want to train more than 100�horses again, Cecil appears to have�undergone a change of heart. For�if the latest news coming out of Warren Place proves correct, Cecil's enlarged string will be well into triple figures this year. The good times�really are back.
Tim Cahill European Union Chamonix Yorkshire David Lynch Australasia
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