Home nations build momentum after French clubs are pitted against each other in the quarter-final draw
What threatened to be a largely dead final day of Heineken Cup pool games has ended up breathing fresh life into the tournament's knock-out stages. The big French clubs may yet restore order but, from an English and Irish perspective, the prospect of a team from outside the Top 14 being crowned European champions in May has been greatly enhanced by Toulouse's last-ditch defeat in High Wycombe yesterday.
On the face of it a quarter-final line-up of four French clubs, two Irish provinces and two representatives from England is hardly proof of the Gallic stranglehold loosening but the odds have now shifted perceptibly. Not only did Northampton and Leinster seal the top two seeding positions in the last eight but both, should they win, will also enjoy home semi-finals. The French sides, in contrast, will all have to travel in the semi-finals, their quartet of survivors having contrived to book a direct shoot-out with each other.
As a result, it is a confident man or woman who can predict with certainty the two finalists in Cardiff on 21 May. Of all the candidates Leinster should perhaps now be regarded as slight favourites, having topped a formidable pool and scored 21 tries in the process. Both their next two games can now be played at Dublin's Aviva Stadium, although they will be conscious of Leicester's forward power. The Tigers have beaten both Leinster and Munster in big games on Irish soil in the recent past and their scrummaging power will again make them awkward opponents.
Northampton, too, will be hoping to prove that reports of the demise of English clubs in Europe are a tad premature. European Rugby Cup organisers are sticking to their rule which decrees a host club must have a minimum capacity of 15,000 to stage a Heineken Cup quarter-final but the Saints, the first unbeaten English club to emerge from the pool stages since Leicester in 2003, will still fancy downing Ulster, whether it be at Milton Keynes or elsewhere. Should they do so, the tantalising possibility of a home semi-final against Jonny Wilkinson's Toulon would also cause a rush at the ticket office.
Wilkinson and friends may yet have to travel to England via Barcelona or Montpellier, though Perpignan's powerful pack will dispute that assumption. As for Toulouse, the consequences of their defeat by Wasps will rumble on for weeks. An away trip to San Sebastian, where Biarritz like to play their big games in front of a fanatical Basque audience, will be a repeat of last year's final with a Spanish twist. As Toulouse demonstrated yesterday, they are not quite as good away from home as they like to think they are. "It'll be tough against Biarritz and probably even tougher against Leinster or Leicester if we make it through," said their No8 Shaun Sowerby.
It is worth remembering, even so, that Premiership clubs have so far lost nine of their 14 games against French opposition in this season's Heineken Cup. The exceptions were Northampton twice, Wasps yesterday, Saracens' away win in Racing Metro and Leicester's home draw with Perpignan. In total, taking into account the presence of Wasps and Harlequins in the Amlin Challenge Cup draw, only four English clubs are left in Europe, equalling the lowest aggregate in any season they have been involved. The superior spending power of the French clubs is still proving hard to overcome.
The Challenge Cup line-up underlines that reality, with at least one French side guaranteed to reach the final in Cardiff. Harlequins and Wasps, due to play each other in the LV Cup in Abu Dhabi this Sunday, will be in opposition once more, albeit in slightly less exotic surroundings. Tony Hanks, Wasps' director of rugby, spoke for many as he scanned the list of fixtures: "That could easily be the Heineken Cup quarter-finals ... Europe is really cut-throat nowadays."
Prior to the knock-out stages, of course, the Six Nations Championship looms. It is not always true that international form is reflected at club level but it was interesting to hear the Rugby Football Union's chief executive, John Steele, stress publicly yesterday that anything less than second place in the tournament would represent failure as far as England are concerned.
"Given we have three matches at home and have some momentum from the autumn we believe finishing in the top two of the Championship is a realistic expectation," said Steele. "Coming third or below would be disappointing given our current position." English optimism is suddenly more discernible than it has been.
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/jan/24/northampton-leinster-heineken-cup-draw
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