Ireland's victory over Australia has raised the prospect of a north-south final and that has been greeted with some surprise here in New Zealand
Ireland's victory over Australia has raised the prospect of a north-south final with the pathways for the two hemispheres distinct, barring at least another upset, and that has been greeted with some surprise here even though only one of the previous six finals, 1995, was an all southern hemisphere affair.
England have contested three finals and France two. What was different about Ireland's triumph was that it was a rare case of a Six Nations side defeating a Tri Nations rival in the group stage.
Only England, against South Africa in 2003, had managed it before. Australia's one previous defeat in a pool match had come in 1995, against South Africa in an era when the World Cup started with the hosts taking on the holders, a short tradition that met its end when Wales were given the right to stage the 1999 tournament and considerately plonked a group that did not include another tier one nation.
As an upset, it ranked high. At the end of last week, Australia were regarded here as the main rivals to New Zealand and the New Zealand Rugby Union was being excoriated for not appointing Robbie Deans as coach after the 2007 World Cup debacle, allowing the Wallabies to make their move.
Now there are calls for Deans to resign. Never mind that Australia are the Tri Nations champions, they have lost to Samoa and Ireland either side of that success. Ireland had not performed in the World Cup since their 2003 group meeting with the Wallabies in Melbourne, a match they were unlucky to lose, and a washout in August had left them looking short on confidence.
Perhaps it was the weather, more Dublin than Auckland, or maybe it was the sea of emerald green in the stands that made it feel like Lansdowne Road - sorry, the Aviva Stadium - but this was the real Ireland, scrapping for everything and making a pedigree side yearn for a mongrel or two.
If there was little evidence to suggest an Ireland victory before the match, the late withdrawals of Stephen Moore and David Pocock were telling. Australia missed Pocock less than Moore, the most abrasive of Australia's tight-five forwards and an accurate lineout thrower. His replacement, Tatafu Polota-Nau, was lacking in every department and as one mistake followed another, the Wallabies found themselves sucked into a forward scrap in which the scrum was a weapon and one, moreover, that the New Zealand referee chose not to disarm.
Ireland's policy of keeping Australia's ball-carriers upright meant that when the Wallabies failed to get the ball from the maul, Ireland had a scrum. Australia's scrum nemesis in recent years has been Andrew Sheridan. Any relief they felt at the Sale prop's early return home sank into the Eden Park turf as Cian Healy turned destroyer. If the Six Nations were put in order of scrummaging prowess, Ireland would probably vie with Scotland for the bottom position, yet they had the Wallaby scrum in such a mess it was Marseilles 2007 all over again.
When Healy took over from Marcus Horan, he was seen as a mobile prop who was not so keen on the tight exchanges. Perhaps that was because he had John Hayes packing down on the other side, but he struggled up front against Australia in Dublin in 2009, although dynamic in the loose.
Last Saturday was different. It was an occasion when Ireland's big players - Brian O'Driscoll, Paul O'Connell, Jamie Heaslip and Stephen Ferris - all led by example but they were supported by Mike Ross, who anchored the scrum, and Sean O'Brien, who had previously been less effective at seven than at six.
He made Eden Park his. Australia struggled to find space and achieve width. They stuck to their gameplan despite deteriorating conditions and found themselves smashed by O'Brien and friends. One caller to a Dunedin phone-in on Monday morning complained that the game had not been entertaining because it had not contained a try.
It was, he noted, the same scoreline as Scotland-Georgia, but others howled him down. Their mood was certainly sweetened by the fact Australia had lost, but they found themselves gripped by the tension that built up. As one caller pointed out, it was rugby in the raw and utterly compelling. Entertainment was measured in more than tries.
It was not quite the message the media here has been trying to get across. The tournament has been billed as southern (as in New Zealand and Australia) enterprise against northern endeavour, but now it seems to have split into mini Tri Nations and Six Nations tournaments before the final.
Conspiracy theorists are already wondering if New Zealand may consider finishing second in their group a less hazardous route to the final than topping it, which would mean losing to France in Auckland on Saturday, while South Africa, who had imagined they would be playing Ireland in the quarter-finals, now have to contemplate Australia.
They still have to play Samoa, but defeat could see them finish third in the pool, not second. Throwing that game is not an option. Their best chance lies with Ireland themselves. Italy lie in wait in the last group match, an occasion that is likely to decide the axis on which the tournament comes to revolve.
? This is an extract from The Breakdown email, which will be launched every weekday throughout the Rugby World Cup. To subscribe for free click here
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/sep/19/rugby-world-cup-2011-ireland
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