Boris has been pressing flesh at Westfield, seeking praise for Friday's coming abolition of the congestion charge zone's western extension. He has declared:
The long desired eradication of the western extension is my Christmas present to the people who live, work and shop in west London. My predecessor wilfully ignored their objections, I promised a fresh consultation and I am a man of my word.
That last bit could be a hostage to fortune, but not in this case. Boris also promised to abide by that consultation's outcome - see page 4 of his transport manifesto - and on this he has delivered too. What's more, a pledge to make paying the charge easier will be kept from the 4th January when the new Auto Pay system comes into effect along with an increase the charge. It is presently �8, and will go up to �9 if paid through AutoPay or �10 if paid by other means on the day and �12 the day after.
This looks to me like a clear cut case of a politician keeping his word. Sing hosanna. Let beacons be lit. But how happy about Boris's decision will inner west Londoners, and Londoners as a whole, be six months from now?
It's very difficult to know. Progress towards abolition has been marked by mayoral doubts about the wisdom of the move - Boris has acknowledged the appeal of retaining the WEZ in a modified form - and the impact of the extension's passing is hard to assesses with certainty.
Everyone agrees that there will be a financial cost to Londoners. Both City Hall and TfL have re-confirmed to me that they expect takings from congestion charging to fall by �55 million a year (a calculation that takes into account a slight rise in income resulting from the ending of discount rates for people living within and on the borders of the WEZ travelling into the Central area.) This is not a massive slice of TfL's annual combined non-grant income of over �3.5 billion, most of which comes from fares, but it is still a tidy sum.
The Labour group, drawing on the answer to a question from the Lib Dems' Caroline Pidgeon, is pointing out that the amount is very similar to the extra �60 million TfL expects to raise from bus fares as a result of the increases Boris is introducing in the New Year. TfL also puts a cost of �2.5 million on physically removing the WEZ, which includes taking down 560 cameras. One hundred will be retained until May 2011 to monitor post-WEZ traffic levels.
How will these be affected? Last February Boris predicted that traffic entering the extension area would increase by 10-15 percent and that "traffic circulating within the area would rise by some 7-12 percent." However, when I interviewed Peter Hendy in October he said that although traffic volumes in the WEZ area "will rise, we don't think by very much." He went on: "We've put on a lot more bus services in the Western Extension and we're not proposing to take them off - there's no reason to because we think they're well used. It may be that people will revert [to their cars], but we somehow think they won't." He added that a "package of measures" was being assembled to ensure that mitigating measures, including those to smooth traffic flow, were fully functioning.
It's important to remember that traffic levels and congestion are related but not the same. TfL's impact assessment of WEZ abolition says (page 6, paragraph 2.3.5):
WEZ has reduced traffic inside the Extension Zone, and initially achieved significant reductions in congestion. However, over the course of the first year of the scheme's operation, congestion rapidly rose, such that it was comparable to the levels of congestion prevailing prior to the introduction of the scheme.
Why did reductions in congestion not continue? There will be several reasons, but according to Peter Hendy one of the biggest contributors to it has just gone away. He remarked to me when we met that "the best thing" to happen to congestion was the then imminent completion of building works at the opulent 1 Hyde Park, where developers Candy and Candy took up a lane of Knightsbridge for 18 months. Blessing for this was given under Ken Livingstone, who introduced the WEZ in 2007. "I'd like to say," Hendy observed, "without being nasty to him, that that's one of the things Ken did which none of us ever understood. That building has been the single biggest traffic congestion causer in the whole of the Western Extension since they started." Following the end of that period came six weeks of further disruption for sewer and gasworks, which I'm told have just been completed though a further four weeks-worth of gasworks is scheduled for the vicinity of Harvey Nichols starting in February.
All these factors and more will influence Londoners' responses to the end of the WEZ and congestion charging in general in the months to come. Previously, opinion has been mixed. The outcome of Boris's promised consultation and the statutory one required before the WEZ could be removed produced decisive majorities of residents and local businesses favouring abolition. On the other hand, a more scientific attitude survey of Londoners as a whole showed that while 41 percent favoured abolition of the WEZ, 30 percent wanted it retained in its present form and a further 15 wanted it retained with modifications (why was there no attitude survey of WEZ area residents in particular, I wonder).
Like so many road-use issues, congestion charging tends to generate strong opinions, perhaps particularly on the part of those who oppose it. There's a localism angle here too - should the views of one section of west London residents outweigh those of Londoners in general?
As I argued here, it all poses quite a challenge for Livingstone. Perhaps he agrees. I'm told - and will check - that when asked on LBC today if he would revive the WEZ if elected in 2012 his answer was rather cautious. Watch this space for an update.
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