Andr� Villas-Boas knows he is under pressure at Stamford Bridge
Guardian writers' prediction: 3rd (This is not Dominic Fifield's prediction, but the average of our writers' tips)
Last season's position: 2nd
Odds to win the league: 5-2
It was Marcel Desailly who summed up the task awaiting Andr� Villas-Boas most succinctly. "All the pressure is on the shoulders of the coach," said the former Chelsea captain. "It's all up to him." The Portuguese, at 33, returned to Stamford Bridge this summer with only 20 months of managerial experience behind him, charged with succeeding where it had been deemed a recent Double-winning coach had failed. It says much for Villas-Boas's innate self-belief that he has plunged himself into his new role with relish.
The rookie with the record ? the Europa League, the domestic league title at a canter and a Portuguese Cup were all claimed in his solitary campaign at Porto ? will not escape the focus as Chelsea's Premier League campaign begins, but the pressure associated with his new role will be embraced. Villas-Boas, a manager who has soaked up knowledge imparted by Sir Bobby Robson, Pep Guardiola and Jos� Mourinho, has only ever been successful. He has never tasted anything else. He may preach the power of the collective, but his is an entrenched belief that his own footballing philosophy can revive this team.
In truth, it has to. Villas-Boas is the single factor at present upon which Chelsea can pin their hopes of transforming last season's relative underachievers into title winners and European contenders again. The club will attempt to be active in the transfer market before the end of the month, and much may depend upon the success of their pursuit of Tottenham Hotspur's playmaker Luka Modric, but, at present, this is a playing staff that is settled and familiar. Short-termism in the dugout has led to virtual inertia when it comes to overhauling the squad. They will essentially rely on the same names, trying to tap into the same strengths, but are therefore also susceptible to the same weaknesses.
These players have earned lofty reputations, but they are also a group who have claimed the Premier League only once since Mourinho's second campaign at the club, and who rather faded as challengers for the Champions League under Carlo Ancelotti. Last term's dismal mid-season slump came as a profound shock, with the Italian never recovering from his inability to arrest the decline until the real damage had been done. Roman Abramovich does not put up with failure, and the management's rather perplexed reaction to the crisis was never likely to be tolerated. Elimination from Europe merely sealed Ancelotti's fate.
Those same players remain, which makes concerns over a repeat inevitable. Logic suggested this summer was an opportunity to revamp, that the new manager might seek to restructure and refresh. Instead, he has chosen to maintain the faith or, perhaps more realistically, recognised the practicalities which hamper Chelsea's attempts to reinvent. Senior players are on considerable wages, limiting the number of suitors capable of luring them away.
Anzhi Makhachkala taking Yuri Zhirkov back to Russia is the exception ? he will be returning home to a money-flushed club able to pay his wages. Others, like Jos� Bosingwa and Paulo Ferreira, cannot be moved on. Nicolas Anelka, too, has opted to see out the final year of his contract and leave for nothing next summer rather than transferring now. The Premier League's 25-man squad rule, and a reluctance to stockpile players who cannot be utilised, has set the club's policy: the lavish spending, to date, was limited to January.
Yet Villas-Boas returned from the club's four-match tour of the far east this week glowing at the quality already at his disposal. His satisfaction was not an act. There had been visible signs of progress through those distant pre-season preparations, with players growing both in terms of physical fitness ? which would be expected ? and in assuredness at the systems and style the management wish to pursue. They spoke of feeling "liberated", revelling in training sessions that concentrated more on ballwork aimed at promoting a fluid, attacking approach on the pitch. These are simple principles and they will be tested in the Premier League, particularly if injuries bite as they did last year, but Villas-Boas and his staff believe they hit upon a balance at Porto that can be implemented in London to eke out something extra.
The tour provided evidence that his techniques, combined with the players' desire to impress, are working. Pre-season only offers hints for what lies ahead, but there was plenty to encourage. Didier Drogba was at his brutish best. Frank Lampard adapted well to the right-sided role in a narrow midfield he might have to occupy if Modric is signed, and even to deeper-lying duties. Branislav Ivanovic appeared a natural partner for John Terry at centre-half, all power on the turf and aggression in the air. Yossi Benayoun offered subtlety and creation, qualities missing for long periods last season. Florent Malouda rediscovered the menace and whip in his delivery. Even Fernando Torres managed a goal and flashes of his old Liverpool self in the Barclays Asia Trophy final victory over Aston Villa. If those seniors maintain form and fitness, Chelsea can still flourish.
The team has flitted smoothly through variations in systems and tactics, from a conventional 4-3-3 to a diamond midfield and even a 4-2-3-1, which should suit Torres most of all. Then there has been the considerable impact of the squad's younger talents, most notably Josh McEachran in midfield and Daniel Sturridge up front. Villas-Boas has high hopes, too, for the teenager Oriol Romeu, en route from Barcelona B, who he sees as capable of thriving in the defensive midfield berth. The Spaniard could potentially move the ball on quicker than Mikel John Obi to maintain an upbeat tempo. Michael Essien's long-term knee injury is a blow, but throw in both Ramires and David Luiz, neither of whom were present in Asia but are both capable of sitting effectively at the base of midfield if required, and there are options for the Portuguese to pursue.
The addition of a playmaker could yet be key, and the catalyst to Torres justifying his value in the months ahead, and coaxing performances from the Spaniard will be essential if Villas-Boas's tenure is to be judged successful. On one level, this club simply cannot afford to endure the embarrassment of being saddled with another Andriy Shevchenko ? Torres, at 27 and already used to the rigours of the Premier League, should not suffer the same fate ? but, on another, if the World Cup winner performs then Chelsea boast a weapon few can rival. Villas-Boas can simply add that to his list of issues to address but, as a manager who has never endured failure, he will not be daunted.
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/aug/02/premier-league-preview-chelsea
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